Introduction
The global hot-rolled coil (HRC) market has been highly dynamic since the start of 2025, with prices experiencing fluctuations across major regions. The United States and Europe are witnessing price hikes, driven by trade protection measures and raw material costs, while China struggles with declining prices due to weak export demand and economic uncertainties.
With tighter trade restrictions looming in the EU and the U.S., steel manufacturers are navigating a complex landscape marked by uncertain demand, evolving trade policies, and fluctuating production costs. European producers are attempting to push prices higher despite sluggish consumer activity, while North American steelmakers are leveraging tariffs to raise domestic prices.
This article delves into regional price trends, the key factors driving market movements, and what to expect in the coming months as the steel industry adapts to changing economic conditions.
Market Overview: Global Hot-Rolled Coil Prices on the Rise
The beginning of 2025 has seen hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices increasing across most regions, despite ongoing volatility in the global steel market. European and American producers are pushing for price hikes even as demand remains uncertain, while prices in China have taken a slight dip due to export challenges and economic instability.
Europe has experienced a steady rise in HRC prices, increasing by 3-5% since the start of the year. As of February 7, 2025, HRC in Western Europe (ex-works) climbed by 4.8% to €595 per tonne compared to December 27, 2024. Italy also saw a 3.1% increase, reaching €582.5 per tonne (ex-works) during the same period. The price for imported rolled products (Southern Europe, CIF) reached €555 per tonne as of January 31, up 0.9% from the end of December.
Despite this price increase, the European market remains in flux due to weak consumer activity and cautious purchasing behavior. Many buyers, including service centers and end users, are hesitant to make large purchases, particularly as the automotive and household appliances industries continue to experience sluggish demand.
In early January, the Italian market showed stability after the holiday break, but a significant drop in order volumes caused concern. Although manufacturers faced pressure on margins due to unfavorable market conditions, production levels were maintained.
By mid-January, annual contract negotiations between European factories and major buyers—primarily from the automotive industry—concluded with price reductions of €60-80 per tonne compared to the previous year. However, by the end of the month, the first signs of price increases emerged.
One North-Western European producer announced its intention to raise quotations to €620/t ex-works, while ArcelorMittal implemented a €30/t increase, effective from April. Meanwhile, imports have struggled to remain competitive due to the potential tightening of trade restrictions in the European Union.
“Traders have taken a wait-and-see attitude, uncertain about how much import restrictions will be tightened under the quota system,” said Andriy Glushchenko, an analyst at GMK Center. “We believe that these restrictions will allow European producers to increase prices to €620/t ex-works. However, if Trump reintroduces a 25% tariff on steel imports in the U.S., it could lead to oversupply in Europe, offsetting the effects of these protective measures.”
As February progressed, certain sectors such as energy and construction showed signs of strengthening demand. However, the automotive industry remained weak, and some market players warned that without a notable increase in demand, producers may have to reduce supply.
Looking ahead, slow price growth is expected in the coming months, particularly if China’s anticipated economic stimulus package supports global steel demand. However, European consumption levels and evolving import policies will be key factors influencing market trends.
Key Drivers Behind the Surge in Hot-Rolled Coil Prices
1. Rising Costs of Raw Materials
One of the main factors behind the increase in HRC prices is the rising cost of essential raw materials, such as iron ore, coking coal, and scrap metal.
- Iron ore prices have remained elevated due to supply constraints in major exporting countries like Australia and Brazil.
- Coking coal, a critical component in steel production, has also experienced price hikes due to supply chain disruptions.
- The scrap metal market has seen tight supply conditions, making steel production more expensive, especially for electric arc furnace-based steelmakers.
2. Increased Demand in Key Sectors
- Construction Boom: Infrastructure and real estate projects in countries like China, the U.S., and Vietnam have boosted steel consumption.
- Automotive Recovery: Global automotive production has rebounded, increasing the demand for HRC in vehicle manufacturing.
- Manufacturing Expansion: The expansion of machinery and equipment production has further supported the upward trend in steel prices.
3. Supply Chain Disruptions & Logistics Challenges
- Shipping constraints and port congestion have delayed deliveries, making it harder for buyers to secure raw materials and finished products.
- Global geopolitical tensions, including tariffs and trade barriers, have disrupted traditional supply routes, creating localized shortages.
4. Trade Policies and Protectionism
Governments worldwide are imposing anti-dumping duties to protect domestic steel industries from cheap imports.
- Vietnam recently imposed anti-dumping tariffs on HRC imports from China.
- The U.S. and the European Union are enforcing stricter trade policies to counteract surging imports from China, India, and Brazil.
- China’s steel export restrictions and higher domestic demand have limited its supply to global markets, further driving up prices.
Regional Analysis of HRC Price Increases
United States: Nucor Leads the Price Hike
Nucor Corporation, one of the largest steel producers in the U.S., has raised HRC prices for the fifth time in 2025.
- The latest price increase brings HRC prices to $685 per tonne, an increase of $10 per tonne from the previous hike.
- The strong domestic demand, rising raw material costs, and trade restrictions have allowed U.S. steelmakers to keep prices elevated.
- Further price hikes may be expected if raw material costs continue to rise.
China: Domestic Demand & Export Controls Impact Prices
- China’s domestic demand for steel has remained strong due to ongoing infrastructure projects.
- The government’s focus on reducing carbon emissions has restricted steel production, limiting export availability.
- As a result, Chinese steel exporters have less supply to send to global markets, further tightening HRC availability.
Europe: Struggling with Energy Costs and Weak Demand
- High energy prices in Europe continue to pressure steel producers, forcing them to adjust prices upwards to cover costs.
- Demand remains mixed, with some markets experiencing slow construction activity, while others are seeing moderate recovery.
- Major European producers, including ArcelorMittal, are increasing prices to offset rising costs.
Vietnam: Protectionist Policies Reshape the Market
- Vietnam has implemented anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese HRC imports, ranging from 19.38% to 27.83%.
- This has significantly reduced the influx of cheaper Chinese steel, forcing domestic buyers to purchase local products.
- Hoa Phat Group and Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, the country’s top producers, are expected to benefit from the new tariffs.
North American HRC Market: Nucor Leads the Charge with Consecutive Price Increases
Hot-rolled coil prices in North America have also climbed since the beginning of the year, rising 3% to $685 per tonne as of February 10, 2025. The market was unstable throughout January, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the new U.S. administration’s trade policies. Despite expectations of higher prices due to new tariffs, demand remained weak, and steel producers faced difficulties in pushing prices higher.
Throughout January, HRC prices fluctuated between $640 and $690 per tonne. Transaction volumes on the spot market were significantly lower than usual, as key consumers—including automakers and construction firms—delayed purchases, awaiting clearer economic signals. By the end of the month, the market failed to sustain a large-scale price increase, and after a brief downward correction, prices began to recover.
February brought slight improvements. After the Trump administration announced new tariffs on steel imports, particularly from China, steelmakers like Nucor started raising prices. By the second week of February, HRC prices had climbed to $660-710 per tonne, supported by rising scrap prices and limited supply from Canada. Buyer activity also increased as customers sought to lock in prices ahead of potential further hikes.
Nucor’s Fifth Price Increase Since the Start of 2025
On February 24, 2025, Nucor announced another spot price increase for hot-rolled coils, setting the base price at $860 per short ton, except for California Steel Industries (CSI), where the price reached $920 per tonne.
This marks Nucor’s fifth price increase since January, reinforcing a broader trend of steelmakers strengthening their market position amid dynamic trade conditions. Previously, on February 17, Nucor had set the HRC base price at $820 per tonne ($880 per tonne at CSI).
In addition to hot-rolled coil, Nucor has also increased wire rod prices by $70 per metric ton, effective February 14. The company cited the rising cost of raw materials—particularly scrap metal—as the reason for this price adjustment.
Other U.S. steel producers have followed suit. Cleveland-Cliffs has started contract negotiations for April deliveries at $900 per tonne, while NLMK USA is working to fix prices at $900/t for hot-rolled steel and $1,100/t for coated cold-rolled steel.
Market analysts suggest that steelmakers are closely monitoring demand trends, making price adjustments in response to rising input costs and trade policies. Industry participants expect further pricing changes in the coming weeks, contingent on raw material price trends and overall demand.
Looking ahead to Q2 2025, the North American market is expected to become more dynamic, with trade restrictions potentially driving up domestic demand. If industrial production stabilizes, prices may continue to rise. However, steelmakers must strike a balance between tariff-driven price adjustments and the actual ability of buyers to absorb higher costs.
China’s Market: Price Decline Amid Economic Uncertainty
While European and North American markets have experienced price increases, China’s HRC market has trended downward. Since the beginning of 2025, prices have declined by 0.5% to $480 per tonne (FOB)—the lowest level since September 2024.
Several factors have contributed to this downward trend:
- Weak domestic demand and sluggish export activity
- Macroeconomic uncertainty and a declining yuan, which impacts purchasing power across Asia
- Limited interest from foreign buyers, making it difficult for Chinese steelmakers to sustain higher prices
Despite this, mid-January saw a brief increase in prices, driven by:
- Pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling
- A recovery in raw material prices
However, after the holidays, the market failed to sustain momentum, as traders remained hesitant to adjust price levels.
Looking ahead, demand is expected to recover gradually, particularly in the construction sector. However, global trade tensions and potential anti-dumping investigations may continue to restrict China’s export opportunities.
Impact on Industries & Market Outlook
1. Construction Industry
- The construction sector, a major consumer of HRC, is feeling the impact of rising steel prices.
- Higher costs for contractors could lead to delays in infrastructure projects and increased housing prices.
2. Automotive Industry
- Car manufacturers face higher production costs, which may result in increased vehicle prices.
- Automakers are looking for alternative materials to manage costs.
3. Manufacturing Sector
- Heavy machinery and industrial equipment manufacturers must adjust to higher steel costs.
- Some companies are exploring long-term contracts with steel suppliers to lock in prices and avoid volatility.
Market Outlook for 2025: Will Prices Continue Rising?
The steel industry remains at a critical juncture, with regional markets experiencing distinct trends:
- Europe: Prices may continue rising if trade restrictions limit imports, but low demand could cap further increases.
- United States: Tariffs on steel imports may push domestic prices higher, but the market’s ability to absorb these increases remains uncertain.
- China: HRC prices could recover if domestic demand strengthens, but global trade policies may limit exports.
Key Factors to Watch in 2025
✅ Trade Policies: Further import restrictions in the EU and U.S. could disrupt global trade flows.
✅ Raw Material Costs: Iron ore, coking coal, and scrap metal prices will influence steel production costs.
✅ Global Economic Recovery: Industrial activity and government stimulus measures will shape steel demand trends.
✅ Supply Chain Stability: Shipping disruptions and geopolitical risks may create short-term price fluctuations.
Conclusion
The global hot-rolled coil market in 2025 is witnessing mixed trends, with Europe and North America facing rising prices, while China struggles with export challenges.
The next few months will be crucial, as governments and steel producers navigate shifting trade policies and economic uncertainty.
Steel buyers and manufacturers must closely monitor price movements and adjust their procurement strategies accordingly to manage risks in a volatile market.
About Lux Metal
At Lux Metal, we specialize in high-quality stainless steel fabrication and customized metal solutions tailored to DIY and industrial applications. With state-of-the-art machinery, including laser cutting, bending, milling, and welding equipment, we provide precise and durable metal products to meet your specific needs.
💡 Visit our website to learn more about our services: Lux Metal Group 🚀
References
🔗 Global HRC Prices Surge Since the Beginning of 2025
🔗 Nucor Raises HRC Prices for the Fifth Time in 2025
🔗 Vietnam’s Steel Market Adjusts to Rising HRC Prices