Global Rebar Prices in 2025: Growth Amid Weak Demand and Market Volatility

Introduction

At the beginning of 2025, the global rebar market remains unstable, with prices increasing in most regions while Turkey and Northern Europe experience slight declines. Market fluctuations are influenced by seasonal demand shifts, raw material price changes, and supply constraints.

Despite price increases in some areas, further growth potential is limited due to weak demand and buyer hesitation. Key markets, including Europe, the U.S., China, and Turkey, are navigating a complex landscape of supply chain disruptions, government policies, and economic uncertainty.

This article provides an in-depth analysis of current rebar price trends in different regions and the factors driving market movements.

Rebar Market Trends by Region

Turkey: Price Declines Due to Weak Demand and Scrap Market Pressure

In Turkey, rebar prices have fallen by 0.4% since the start of 2025, reaching $560/tonne FOB. Despite slight price fluctuations in January (ranging from $552.5 to $557.5 per tonne), an increase in early February has offered some stability.

Key Factors Affecting Turkish Rebar Prices

1. Seasonal Decline in Trade Volumes
   • The New Year holiday slowdown led to reduced market activity, forcing Turkish producers to lower prices to attract buyers.
   • Export demand was weak, limiting price growth opportunities.
2. Scrap Price Declines in January
   • Falling scrap prices put additional downward pressure on rebar prices, making it difficult for producers to maintain margins.
3. Competitive Pressure from Other Steel Producers
   • North African and Brazilian steel exporters competed with Turkish suppliers, limiting Turkish rebar’s price growth.

Market Outlook for Turkey

• Despite the slight price increase in early February, overall demand remains limited, particularly in the EU, the Balkans, and the Middle East.
• The absence of significant orders from Syria and North Africa has restricted further market expansion.
• If scrap prices rise, Turkish producers may attempt modest price increases in the coming weeks.

Europe: Mixed Market Trends and Limited Growth Potential

The European rebar market has seen divergent trends across regions.

• Italy: Prices stood at €592.5/tonne ex-works on 13 February 2025, marking a 3% increase from late December 2024.
• Northern Europe: Prices declined slightly by 0.4% to €560/tonne ex-works due to weak demand.

Market Dynamics in Europe

1. Attempts to Raise Prices by Major Producers
   • ArcelorMittal announced a €25/tonne price increase, citing rising energy costs.
   • German mills struggled to implement price hikes due to weak demand and buyer hesitation.
2. Production Cuts and Supply Constraints
   • The partial shutdown of Riva’s Hennigsdorf plant and the introduction of short working weeks helped stabilize prices.
3. Government-Funded Infrastructure Projects
   • EU-backed construction projects provided moderate support for rebar demand.

Market Outlook for Europe

• While energy and raw material costs may push prices higher, low demand and cautious buyers could limit further increases.
• In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate around current levels, with any significant changes depending on Europe’s overall economic situation.

United States: Upward Price Trend Amid Scrap Price Increases

The U.S. rebar market has experienced a 4.2% price increase year-to-date, reaching $745 per short ton in the Midwest (ex-works).

Factors Driving U.S. Rebar Prices

1. Scrap Price Surge
   • Stable scrap prices in January shifted to a $40-50/t increase in February.
   • Low scrap stockpiles and harsh winter weather have contributed to rising costs.
2. Steel Mill Price Increases
   • Nucor and Gerdau Long Steel North America raised prices by $30/t in January, followed by another $40/t increase in February.
   • Buyers were divided on whether the increases would last, with some expecting stabilization.
3. Trade Policy Impact
   • A 25% tariff on imported steel under the Trump administration created uncertainty in the market.
   • Mexican and Canadian imports slowed, increasing reliance on domestic production.

Market Outlook for the U.S.

• Further price increases are likely in Q2 2025, but sustainability will depend on:
  • Scrap market trends
  • Import tariff adjustments
  • Government infrastructure projects

If domestic demand weakens, price stabilization or minor corrections could occur.

China: Market Fluctuations and Demand Uncertainty

The Chinese rebar market has seen prices rise by 0.7% to $450/t FOT. However, market conditions remain volatile due to seasonal factors and economic concerns.

Key Factors Affecting China’s Rebar Market

1. Seasonal Weakness in Construction Activity
   • Winter construction slowdowns led to increased rebar inventories, limiting price gains.
2. Blast Furnace and Electric Arc Furnace Maintenance
   • Production slowdowns starting on 10 January temporarily reduced supply.
3. Government Policies and Market Sentiment
   • Statements from the People’s Bank of China supporting investment lifted futures markets but had limited real demand impact.

Market Outlook for China

• Post-Chinese New Year, prices rose slightly, but recovery remains slow.
• Full construction activity resumption in March could support further price increases.
• Government reforms and production constraints will play a key role in market direction.

Asia: Mixed Trends in Rebar Prices

The Asian rebar market has experienced a combination of price increases and declines, depending on the region.

China: Volatile Prices Due to Weak Demand

• Chinese rebar prices have fluctuated in early 2025, with some markets experiencing slight increases while others have seen price drops.
• The primary reasons for this volatility include:
  • Weak construction activity due to slowing economic growth.
  • High steel inventories that have kept prices from rising significantly.
  • Government policies restricting overproduction, limiting price growth.

As of February 2025:

• Shanghai rebar prices remain at around ¥4,250 per ton ($620 per ton), largely unchanged from December 2024.
• In contrast, some southern regions have seen a 1.5% increase in prices due to lower supply.

Analysts expect China’s rebar prices to remain volatile unless government stimulus measures boost construction demand in the coming months.

India and Southeast Asia: Strong Demand Pushing Prices Up

• India’s rebar market has seen a 3-4% price increase due to rising construction activity and higher input costs.
• Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand have reported price increases of 2-3%, driven by infrastructure projects and urban development initiatives.

These regions are expected to maintain stable rebar price growth through Q1 2025.

Key Global Factors Impacting Rebar Prices in 2025

1. Raw Material Costs and Scrap Price Volatility

• Scrap price increases in the U.S. and Europe are pushing rebar production costs higher.
• However, scrap price declines in Turkey are limiting price gains.

2. Weak Demand and Buyer Caution

• Turkey, Northern Europe, and China are seeing limited purchasing activity.
• The U.S. and parts of Europe have stronger demand, but further growth is uncertain.

3. Trade Policies and Tariffs

• U.S. steel tariffs are reshaping import dynamics, creating uncertainty for Canadian and Mexican exporters.
• European import restrictions have reduced competition from non-EU producers, stabilizing local prices.

4. Construction and Infrastructure Spending

• EU-funded projects are supporting European rebar demand.
• The U.S. infrastructure bill is providing momentary market strength.
• China’s slow construction recovery is a key downside risk.

Future Outlook for the Global Rebar Market

Given current market conditions, analysts predict that:

• Rebar prices will remain elevated in Q1 and Q2 2025, particularly in Europe and the U.S.
• China’s rebar market may stabilize if government stimulus measures boost construction activity.
• Scrap prices will continue influencing global rebar costs, particularly in markets like Turkey and India.

With infrastructure projects and supply chain disruptions shaping the market, steel producers and buyers should prepare for continued price volatility in the months ahead.

Short-Term Projections (Q1-Q2 2025)

• Prices in the U.S. and parts of Europe may increase if scrap costs rise further.
• China’s market will depend on construction recovery and government policy interventions.
• Turkey’s market remains uncertain, with weak demand limiting price gains.

Long-Term Projections (Q3-Q4 2025)

• Energy prices and raw material costs will be major price determinants.
• Global economic stability will shape demand growth.
• If infrastructure investments increase, steel demand could strengthen in H2 2025.

Conclusion: A Volatile Yet Resilient Global Rebar Market in 2025

The global rebar market in 2025 has witnessed price increases in most regions, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain due to weak demand and market volatility. While some markets, such as the United States and parts of Europe, have experienced steady price gains, others, including Turkey and Northern Europe, have seen price declines or stagnation. The overall market remains in a delicate balance between supply constraints, raw material costs, trade policies, and economic conditions.

One of the most significant factors influencing global rebar prices is the cost of raw materials, particularly scrap metal. In regions such as the United States and Europe, rising scrap prices have contributed to higher rebar prices, as manufacturers pass these costs onto buyers. However, in Turkey, falling scrap prices have had the opposite effect, leading to lower rebar prices and reduced profit margins for producers. This demonstrates how regional scrap market dynamics play a crucial role in determining rebar pricing trends.

Demand trends vary significantly across different regions, affecting price stability and growth potential. In the U.S., a strong infrastructure sector and government-backed projects have helped drive rebar demand, contributing to a 4.2% price increase year-to-date. Similarly, European rebar prices have been supported by EU-funded infrastructure projects, although buyer caution and economic uncertainty have limited further gains.

In contrast, Turkey’s rebar market has struggled due to low domestic and export demand. Despite slight price increases in early February, buyers in the EU, the Balkans, and the Middle East have remained cautious, leading to weak sales volumes. Additionally, the absence of significant orders from Syria and North Africa has restricted market growth. The challenge for Turkish producers will be to balance price competitiveness with profit margins, particularly if global scrap prices begin to rise again.

China’s rebar market remains highly unpredictable, with price fluctuations driven by seasonal factors, construction activity, and economic policies. At the start of 2025, demand weakened due to winter construction slowdowns, leading to a buildup in inventories. However, government interventions, such as financial stimulus measures, have helped improve market sentiment. The real test for China’s rebar market will be whether post-Chinese New Year construction activity can drive sustained demand growth.

Looking ahead, the global rebar market will remain volatile, with several key factors determining future price movements. Raw material costs, trade policies, and economic conditions will continue to influence market stability. If scrap prices keep rising, we can expect further price increases in the U.S. and Europe, while markets like Turkey and China may struggle to sustain growth due to weak domestic demand and export competition.

In the long term, infrastructure investment and government policies will play a crucial role in shaping the steel industry. If global economic conditions improve, construction activity may recover, leading to increased demand for rebar. However, if demand remains sluggish, rebar prices could stabilize or decline in the latter half of 2025.

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References:

1️⃣ GMK Center
2️⃣ Vanadium Price